Singapore Market Overview · Trends and Price Factors
Market Snapshot
Latest median and YoY for the four markets (HDB resale / HDB rentals / private sales / private rentals).
① Four Market Trends (2021-10 = 100)
Normalising the four markets to one base shows directly who is moving faster.
How to read: 2021-10 as base 100. A higher index means more growth relative to the base.
② Long Cycle: HDB resale 36 years · private 5 years
1990 – 2026, annual median price and volume. This is the only housing price series islandwide with 36 years of continuous records.
Methodology break:2012 and earlier it isapproval date (Approval Date); from 2012-03 it isregistration date (Registration Date),
The red line marks a methodology change; the step across it cannot be read entirely as a real price rise.
PrivateNo 36-year series —— Public private transaction records go back only to 2021-09, 31 years less than HDB.
Below: private transaction psf over this 5-year window, monthly volume, and growth versus HDB over the same period.
③ Private vs HDB: psf ratio
Private transaction psf ÷ HDB resale psf. A higher ratio means private is relatively pricier.
How to read: A rising ratio means private is outperforming HDB. The historical range is roughly 2.6x – 3.6x,
④ Seasonality: does timing the month help (incl. school-term rents)
Monthly price deviation from the annual median (%), and each month’s share of annual volume.
Monthly rent pattern (school-term season)
Yes, but HDB and private have different seasonal shapes.
HDB Rentals: monthly rent index
Index = Monthly mean ÷ annual mean, removing the yearly price trend; Vol is the month’s share of annual volume. 2021 (incomplete start) and 2026 (incomplete year) are excluded.
Private rentals: monthly rent index
The school-term season is real, but the two markets have different seasonal shapes:
HDB: Jan lowest (0.956), Dec highest (1.046), an annual spread of about 9% —— Matches the local school calendar: the school year starts in January, families tend to move in Nov–Dec, and demand lifts year-end rents; Jan–Feb (incl. Chinese New Year) is quieter.
Private: peak in Jul–Aug (1.034 / 1.062), lower in Jan–May —— mainly follows the mid-year relocation cycle of expatriates, not the local school year.
Volume shows almost no seasonality: HDB monthly shares are 7.6%–9.2% (even would be 8.3%), showing seasonality affects price, not activity.
Practical tips:For HDB rentals avoid Nov–Dec and consider signing in Jan; for private avoid Jul–Aug. The gap is about 5–11%, worth a few thousand dollars over a year of rent, so timing matters.
⑤ Tenure: freehold / 99-year / remaining lease
Bottom line: the true freehold premium is about 3%, far less than commonly claimed.
⑤–⑧ How to read:Index 1.000 = equals comparable transactions in the same location, flat type and year; above 1 is pricier, below 1 is cheaper. Each chart compares within location × flat type × year strata, removing location and timing effects.
HDB: remaining lease vs psf
Sample: 199,413 transactions since 2019. Strata: town × flat type × year.Note: all HDB flats are 99-year leasehold, and remaining lease = 99 − building age; the two are fully collinear, so this chart is really a building-age effect and cannot be read as a discount from a 99-year lease nearing expiry. A real discount only kicks in with very short remaining leases near 45 years or less (only 1,611 transactions so far).
Private: tenure type vs psf
Raw comparison without controlling for age. 99-year actually appears higher than freehold, due toconfounding: most Singapore private property completed before 1980 is freehold, and these projects are already old.
Private: tenure effect after controlling for project age (key)
Adding project age to the strata: district × type × year × age band, 65,036 transactions. Controlling for age reverses the result — Freehold premium about +3.0%, far below the 10–20% commonly cited in the market.
How to read:The true freehold premium is around 3% range. The common claim that freehold costs 10%+ more is mostly the combined effect of prime location + low density + large plots, not tenure itself. For pure investment held under 10 years, 99-year leasehold usually offers better value.
⑥ Building Age vs Rent: how much is new worth
HDB — a completely different answer from private property.
HDB: building age vs rent psf (S$/sqft/month)
Sample: 206,158 rentals (floor area estimated from the median resale area of the same block and flat type). Strata: town × flat type × year.
Private: building age vs rent psf
Sample: 225,633 rentals, building age from the project TOP year. Strata: district × bedrooms × year.
Why the difference:Building age affects private rents (new vs 30+ years differ by about 35%) far more than HDB (new only 10–15% higher, bottoming out after 20 years). Because private rent pays forfacilities and condition (pool, gym, facade, layout), which age visibly over time; whereas HDB rent is mainly determined bySize and location. Older HDB flats are larger and mostly in mature towns, so depreciation falls mainly on sale prices while rents hold steady. For buyers:If the goal is rental income, HDB flats under 15 years old offer the best value; be more careful with private — the rent discount on older private property persists.
⑦ Schools: is there really a school-zone premium
Having a school nearby has no effect; a top school adds about 2%, and data is limited.
Distance to nearest primary school vs psf
HDB resales, strata: town × flat type × year. 92 primary school locations islandwide.
Conclusion: no discernible effect. all bands between 0.99–1.04 andNon-monotonic (slightly higher beyond 2km), showing this is residual location difference, not a school effect. The reason is simple — Singapore primary schools are very dense, nearly every HDB flat has one within 1.2km, so having a school nearby is not scarce.
GEP Top school within 1km vs psf
GEP (Gifted Education Programme) primary schools: 9, an official MOE programme and the only verifiable objective top-school marker (MOE does not publish school rankings). Strata: town × flat type × year.
GEP 1km HDB premium about +2.2% —— The direction is monotonic (within 1km 1.025 → beyond 2km 1.003), but the size is only about 2%, far below the 10–20% school-zone premium agents often quote. The private result is non-monotonic (within 1km 0.995, 1–2km 1.048, beyond 2km 1.003) with no explanatory power, so no conclusion is drawn. Data limits:OneMap About 92 primary schools islandwide could be located (out of roughly 180, about half), and school reputation tiers cannot be distinguished — a true top-school premium needs P1 registration competition data (yearly balloting by distance band per school) to quantify, which is not in the current dataset.
⑧ Floor / Size / MRT
Floor level is the strongest factor of all.
Floor vs psf (HDB)
Strata: town × flat type × year. This is the most monotonic and largest factor.
Size band vs psf
HDB
Private
HDB size has little effect on psf (0.97–1.04); for private, smaller units typically have higher psf (under 60sqm 1.030 vs above 150sqm 0.896), because the total price threshold shapes the buyer pool.
Distance to nearest MRT station vs psf
HDB
Private
145 MRT stations; HDB matched by block coordinates, covering 199,413 / 199,413 transactions. Premium within 400m: HDB +4.0%, private +5.5%. Samples beyond 2.5km are very few (HDB only 242), so their higher values are unreliable.
⑨ Key Findings
Combining the market trends and price factors above, ranked by" range".
Market Trends
Price Factors: what really drives prices
Only three factors are truly strong:Floor, Private building age, Private size band; the most asked-aboutTenure and schools have little real effect. Index 1.000 = equals comparable transactions in the same location, flat type and year; above 1 is pricier, below 1 is cheaper.
Question
Conclusion
Impact
⑤ Tenure: freehold vs 99-year
After controlling for age, private freehold +3.0%; all HDB flats are 99-year leasehold, with no freehold
Weak
⑤ Lease: remaining years
HDB 95+ years remaining is higher than under 45 years by +27.7%, but fully collinear with building age (essentially building age)
Looks strong / actually building age
⑥ Building age → rent (HDB)
0–5-year new sale +15.0%, falling back to flat beyond 21 years (0.98–0.99)
Moderate (first 20 years)
⑥ Building age → rent (private)
0–5 yrs +12.5%, 31–40 years -17.0%, new vs 30+ years differ by +35.5%
Strong
⑦ School: nearest primary school distance
HDB all bands 1.008–1.042, private 0.989–1.037,Non-monotonic; no real effect
None
⑦ School: GEP top school 1km
HDB 1km vs beyond 2km +2.2% (monotonic but small); private is non-monotonic, no conclusion
Weak
④ School-term season (HDB rent)
1 lowest at 0.956, Dec highest at 1.046, an annual spread of 9.5%; volume shows almost no seasonality
Weak–Moderate
④ School-term season (private rent)
5 lowest at 0.960, Aug highest at 1.062, a spread of 10.6%, peaking mid-year rather than at the start of the school year
Moderate
⑧ Floor
19 floors and above +25.4%, floors 1–3 -7.1%, a gap of +34.9%
Strong
⑧ MRT distance
400m within, HDB +4.0%, private +5.5%
Weak–Moderate
⑧ Size band (private)
Under 60sqm +3.0%, above 150sqm -10.4% (smaller units have higher psf)
Charts and tables are free, and a 10-row sample of each dataset is free to download; full CSV export requires an access code.
How to use: Each dataset’s First 10 sample rows free to download (no code needed; for checking fields and definitions);
Once you enter a valid access code on the right, a Full CSV ↓ button appears alongside to download all rows.
Viewing charts and tables on the page is always free; only saving files (full CSV / Excel pack) needs authorisation.
Exported CSVs include a UTF-8 BOM, so Excel / Numbers display Chinese correctly on double-click.
Flat price S$88 (SGD), no single-page or site-wide tiers: after payment you automatically receive a site-wide access code that unlocks CSV downloads for all 26 datasets + a one-off Excel data pack.
AiJia · With heart and love, your home awaits.
With heart and love, your home awaits.Using AI and data to help you understand every home in Singapore · About AiJia →
