Singapore market overview · Trends and price factors
At a Glance
Latest median and YoY for HDB resale, HDB rentals, private sales and private rentals.
① Four market trends (2021-10 = 100)
Indexing the four markets to one base shows who is moving faster.
How to read: 2021-10 as base 100. Higher means more growth since the base.
② Long cycle: HDB resale 36 years · private 5 years
1990 – 2026, annual median price and volume — 36 continuous years.
Methodology break: 2012 and earlier it is approval date (Approval Date); from 2012-03 it is registration date (Registration Date),
The red line marks a methodology change; the step there is not all real price growth.
Private vs HDB, same period (2021-09 ~ 2026-09)
Private No 36-year series — Public private transaction records start only in 2021-09, 31 years after HDB.
Below: private psf over this 5-year window, monthly volume, and growth vs HDB.
③ Private vs HDB: psf ratio
Private psf ÷ HDB resale psf. Higher means private is relatively pricier.
How to read: A rising ratio means private is outperforming HDB. Historically it ranges about 2.6x – 3.6x,
④ Seasonality: does the month matter (incl. school-term rents)
Monthly deviation from the annual median (%), and each month’s share of annual volume.
Monthly rent pattern (school-term season)
Yes, but HDB and private have different seasonal shapes.
HDB Rentals: monthly rent index
Index = Monthly ÷ annual mean, detrended; Vol = month’s share. Excludes 2021 and 2026.
Private rentals: monthly rent index
The school-term effect is real, but the two markets differ:
HDB: Jan lowest (0.956), Dec highest (1.046), an annual spread of about 9% — School year effect: Nov–Dec moves lift rents; Jan–Feb is quieter.
Private: peak in Jul–Aug (1.034 / 1.062), lower in Jan–May — mainly follows the mid-year expat relocation cycle, not the school year.
Volume shows almost no seasonality: HDB monthly shares are 7.6%–9.2% (even split: 8.3%), so seasonality affects price, not activity.
Practical tips: Rent HDB in Jan, not Nov–Dec; private, avoid Jul–Aug. Saves 5–11%.
⑤ Tenure: freehold / 99-year / remaining lease
Bottom line: the real freehold premium is about 3%, far less than claimed.
⑤–⑧ How to read: Index 1.000 = equals comparable sales; above 1 is pricier, below 1 cheaper.
HDB: remaining lease vs psf
Sample: 199,413 transactions since 2019. Strata: town × flat type × year. Note: all HDB flats are 99-year leasehold, and remaining lease = 99 − building age; the two are fully collinear, so this is building age, not lease decay. Real discounts start below ~45 years left (1,611 transactions).
Private: tenure type vs psf
Raw comparison without controlling for age. 99-year looks higher than freehold, due to confounding: most Singapore private homes built before 1980 are freehold, and those projects are now old.
Private: tenure effect controlling for project age (key)
Controlling for age (65,036 transactions), the result reverses — Freehold premium about +3.0%, far below the 10–20% often cited.
How to read: The real freehold premium is around 3% range. The 10%+ freehold premium is mostly location, not tenure. Under 10 years, 99-year leasehold wins.
⑥ Building age vs rent: what is new worth
HDB — the opposite of private property.
HDB: building age vs rent psf (S$/sqft/month)
Sample: 206,158 rentals. Strata: town × flat type × year.
Private: building age vs rent psf
Sample: 225,633 rentals; building age from project TOP year. Strata: district × bedrooms × year.
Why the difference: Age hits private rents (~35%, new vs 30+) far more than HDB (10–15%). Private rent pays for facilities and condition (pool, gym, facade, layout), which age visibly; HDB rent is mainly driven by Size and location. Older HDB flats are bigger, so age hits prices, not rents. For buyers: For rental income, buy HDB under 15 years; older private stays discounted.
⑦ Schools: is there a school-zone premium
Being near a school has no effect; a top school adds about 2%, on limited data.
Distance to nearest primary school vs psf
HDB resales, strata: town × flat type × year. 92 primary school locations islandwide.
Conclusion: no discernible effect. all bands between 0.99–1.04 and Non-monotonic (higher beyond 2km): location, not schools. Nearly every HDB flat is within 1.2km of one.
GEP Top school within 1km vs psf
GEP (Gifted Education Programme) primary schools: 9, the only verifiable top-school marker. Strata: town × flat type × year.
GEP 1km HDB premium about +2.2% — Monotonic (1.025 → 1.003) but only ~2%, not the 10–20% agents claim. Private is non-monotonic (≤1km 0.995, 1–2km 1.048, >2km 1.003): no conclusion. Data limits: OneMap Only ~92 of ~180 schools located; a true premium needs P1 balloting data.
⑧ Floor / Size / MRT
Floor level is the strongest factor.
Floor vs psf (HDB)
Strata: town × flat type × year. This is the most monotonic and largest factor.
Size band vs psf
HDB
Private
HDB size barely affects psf (0.97–1.04); private small units cost more psf (1.030 vs 0.896).
Distance to nearest MRT vs psf
HDB
Private
145 MRT stations. Within 400m: HDB +4.0%, private +5.5%. Beyond 2.5km samples are tiny (HDB 242).
⑨ Key findings
Trends and price factors together, ranked by impact.
Market trends
Price factors: what really drives prices
Only three factors are truly strong: Floor, Private building age, Private size band; the most asked-about Tenure and schools matter little. Index 1.000 = equals comparable sales (same location, flat type and year); above 1 is pricier, below 1 cheaper.
Question
Conclusion
Impact
⑤ Tenure: freehold vs 99-year
After controlling for age, private freehold +3.0%; all HDB flats are 99-year leasehold, with no freehold
Weak
⑤ Lease: remaining years
HDB 95+ years remaining beats under 45 years by +27.7%, but fully collinear with building age (essentially building age)
Looks strong / actually building age
⑥ Building age → rent (HDB)
0–5-year new sale +15.0%, falling back to flat beyond 21 years (0.98–0.99)
Moderate (first 20 years)
⑥ Building age → rent (private)
0–5 yrs +12.5%, 31–40 years -17.0%, new vs 30+ years differ by +35.5%
Strong
⑦ School: distance to nearest primary
HDB all bands 1.008–1.042, private 0.989–1.037, Non-monotonic; no real effect
None
⑦ School: GEP top school 1km
HDB 1km vs beyond 2km +2.2% (monotonic but small); private is non-monotonic, no conclusion
Weak
④ School-term season (HDB rent)
Jan lowest at 0.956, Dec highest at 1.046, an annual spread of 9.5%; volume shows almost no seasonality
Weak–Moderate
④ School-term season (private rent)
May lowest at 0.960, Aug highest at 1.062, a spread of 10.6%, peaking mid-year rather than at the start of the school year
Moderate
⑧ Floor
19 floors and above +25.4%, floors 1–3 -7.1%, a gap of +34.9%
Strong
⑧ MRT distance
within 400m, HDB +4.0%, private +5.5%
Weak–Moderate
⑧ Size band (private)
Under 60sqm +3.0%, above 150sqm -10.4% (smaller units have higher psf)
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